Tag Archives: Uttar Pradesh

‘dod’ Tram Story: The King Makers

Two men traveling in a tram. It is a hot & humid Kolkata summer. They got into a debate. Getting into a debate is not uncommon in this part of India, it is rather an opportunity to flex intellectual muscle, but with ongoing election fever, any debate other than politics, shall raise eyebrows.

Mr. Das, looking out of the window of slow moving tram, said, “fourteen years have gone dod_Tramby and yet the things have not changed.”

Mr. Saha, wiping the sweat on his forehead remarked, “What are you talking about, CPM (Communist Party) is no longer in power, it is DiDi now. (Didi, referred to head of ruling TMC in West Bengal)

Das, smirked, “Saha, let me tell you, National Parties in India are just rubber stamps. They over last 14 years could not make government on their own.”

Saha for a while could not get head or tails of it, but he did not let his Bengali spirit cow down so easily.  He said, “Sauti (true), but you need to have evidence for same.”

Das was now in full spirit, ignoring the beautiful Victoria Memorial and some cool breeze that gushes along on this stretch of tram ride. He straightened and said, “You know for all these years no matter who was at the center, the state parties where the ones who ruled.”

Knowing that he had Saha grappling to grasp, he continued, “Saha as per past stats, state parties have cornered 28% of seats in national elections, which leaves the national parties to no alternative but seek their support to have 51% majority”. He added, “Worst is that this gives state parties unusual say on national issues and corner key portfolios in the central government. Remember, this is without them having any say in any other part of India.”

Saha understood that Das has got a one up on him, but he still probed further, “Do you have the stats handy?”

Das was now enjoying the breeze as tram moved forward on signal turning green. “Yes, of course, I have the proof. Here you go.”

With this Das showed Saha a piece of paper and it read as follows:

Seats won in the year           2009         2004         1999

National Parties                         376              364         369

State Parties                                146              159         158

Unrecognized Parties              12                 15           10

Independents                               09                 05           06

Total                                                 543             543         543

State Party Seats/Total          26%        29%          29%

Saha knew today Das had come prepared. He acknowledged it and added, “Yes, that is what makes Didi in West bengal, Amma in Tamil Nadu and Bhenji in Uttar Pradesh, key to this elections”.

Das remarked, “Sauti (True), if stats have it’s way they have key to 28% of seats and are the kingmakers.” They both laughed together and got ready to get off the tram.

By ‘dod’ Rangers

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Indian Democracy: The Goliath Muscle

At the onset, we would like to thank all readers, we call them patrons, of “dod” blog. Based on the feedback of our patrons, on David & Goliath series, we have done analysis of muscle power of these states. Muscle Power? Yes, here we are talking about the economic muscle. Lets see if we get surprises down here.


We have taken GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of these states for comparison and dipped into databank of Planning commission of India. Visit them at
http://planningcommission.nic.in . To analyze further we are computing another national ratio, National GDP/Seat Ratio, which comes out to be Rs.0.17 Lacs Crs. or 17,500 Crs. This ratio indicates Revenue (GDP), read resource, under management per seat.

 

The Goliaths

GDP 2012-13       (Rs. Lac Crs.)

Seats

GDP/Seat

(Rs. Lac Crs.)

State GDP as % of India’s GDP

Uttar Pradesh

7.69

80

0.09

8.2%

Maharashtra

13.72

48

0.28

15%

Andhra Pradesh

7.45

42

0.17

8%

Bihar

3.08

40

0.07

3%

West Bengal

6.22

42

0.14

6%


Lets analyze the Goliaths, Maharashtra is the top state with maximum GDP contribution (15%) to the nation. Bihar does not figure out in top 5 GDP producing states, while West Bengal barely manages to stay in 5th spot. Followed closely by Gujarat. With an exception of Bihar, top seat contributors also are top GDP produces for India.


Lets analyze the GDP/Seat of Goliaths. Here Maharashtra, and if we are benevolent, Andhra Pradesh, have GDP/Seat ratio higher than India’s average. Thus even though in absolute terms three Goliaths have larger economic muscle, read GDP, but their GDP/Seat ratio is less than national average. We believe that seat allocation is to manage resources of the country better, than Goliaths are not the best performers.

 

Solution for Goliaths, we may sound simplistic, but it is logical that Goliaths need to increase GDP or reduce the number of seats. We believe the former is the option and not the later.


Any guesses on the economic muscle of Davids?

By “dod” Rangers