Category Archives: Economics

‘dod’ Mumbai Local Story – India’s Future (Final Part)

dod_Mumbai_Local

 

…………….. (Continued from earlier post)

It was 8:53 am and the local reached Kurla. There was a mass exodus of people from the local, as most of them were working in the BKC, Bandra Kurla Complex, which was not far from this station. In came Adil, a well built up guy in his mid 30s, Adil was working in the sales function of a multinational.

“Hey Software how are you” said Adil, referring to Shanker who was a software engineer working with a bank in Fort.

Shanker said, “Good Bhai jaan, but Jignesh looks slightly off today”. He wanted Adil to needle Jignesh. Adil was quick to jump on the que said, “What happened Shares (Jignesh’s nick-name, again framed by Adil), market is bullish but your face shows like bears are hugging you”.

It was lot of laughs around with Adil and Shanker doing a tag this time around. Jignesh said, “Well guys lets get through our discussion on national pass time (referring to Shanker with his laptop open), we just have 20 min left to reach CST”

Adil ignoring the Jignesh’s comment said “Yes Software, what are your findings, I am excited to share my views”.

By now the people around have also stopped their regular chit chat and were focusing on what Shanker had to state.

Shanker looking up from his laptop said, “We were to find out top three areas where new government need to focus so that India may have next five years of growth and prosperity.”

He continued,  “As per my findings there are two large group within India that, if attended to may lead to rapid growth. These groups are Farmers & employable youth in India”.

Jignesh intervened, “Any numbers? or just thoughts you have?”

Shanker knew this was coming, he said,” India has over 263Mn people involved in agriculture”. He paused a bit, looking at the numbers.

Jignesh was absorbed as soon as numbers were out. he said, “I am all ears, please continue”.

Shanker continued, “With respect to youth, India is all set to become the youngest country in the world by 2020 with the median age of 29 years. There are 430Mn youngsters in India between age of 15-34 years”.

Adil added,”So if we have policies that could take care of people involved in farming, create opportunities to skill the youth and have employment opportunities. We would have given booster to nearly half of India’s population, which shall add to growth.”

Jignesh added, “Wow thats amazing. I think, to create employment, there should be proper impetus on infrastructure & health care services. This way the growth shall plough back social benefit as well.”

Uncle sitting at the seat, said “Bhai, why don’t you guys slow down a bit and relay it again for benefit of all.”

Shanker, now closing his laptop said,” Yes! indeed it is so apparent. three points that new Government should have as their top priority :

– Policies for boosting agricultural, hmm…something like a “next green revolution” for people in agriculture.

– For the youth, skill them and create employment opportunities, in infrastructure & health care sector. “

Adil adjusting his shirt, added,” third point needs to be, to have policies to create innovation and foster entrepreneurship. This would create self fueling employment opportunities.”

People around clapped at the conclusion. Jignesh along with others was beaming too. Taking the opportunity, Shanker said, “Looks like Jignesh has got a clue on which sectors to invest in next five years.”

Jignesh winked and said, “Yes of course, I hit lot of opportunities while traveling in this Mumbai Local.”

There was a loud laugh and people were all happy to have reached the conclusion as the train arrived at the final destination, Mumbai CST.  The three friends went out together followed by others.

Every one alighted and compartment was empty but all who were part of discussion, they  were filled with hope & clarity of thought about their nation.

Hope their “hope” sees light of day.

Mumbai local, with a loud hooter, again moved to ply on the same route.

By ‘dod’ Rangers

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‘dod’ Mumbai Local Story – India’s Future

It was 8:15am Monday morning at hustling Thane suburban railway station. There is a man dashing into the main gates, running and avoiding hitting others, who are more or less matching his pace.

Shanker panting a bit now, started to move up the foot over bridge with uncanny knack of dodging people and moving on. He could see that 8:32 fast local was scheduled to leave from platform no. 4. He had another 500 meters or so before he hit the needed platform.

8:27am, Shankar managed to reach his usual location to board the local. He had 5min, which seemed like a luxury at this point in time, to catch his breathe before he would board the usually crowded local. Shanker wiped his brow and was standing underneath a fan, which he shared with fellow passengers on the platform. The little gush of air, was bringing on, sweet pleasure in the sweltering humidity of Mumbai.

The local arrived, Shanker was all pecked up to enter the first class compartment. Others were ready as well. Even before the train could stop, there were people getting out of it and by the time it stopped, there was a mad rush of people to get in. It is usual to hear the noise of the iron door and few passengers hitting it.

“Awee jao mahein” (Come on inside), came the voice from inside the first class compartment. Jignesh called out loud to Shanker. This is a tacit understanding on a Mumbai local, wherein people would make way for you, if there are your friends/group calling out for you.

Anyway, Shanker was happy to reach inside and be with his usual co-passengers. He has been traveling with them for past 4 years now. The traveling was more of time where friends met.

Jignesh standing up from the seat said, “Shanker come sit here, looks like you have defeated Milkha singh today.” He had noticed the sweat on Shanker’s shirt.

Shanker said mockingly, “Nahi yarr, today was able to beat only P.T. Usha”.

Jignesh, as always, was quick to respond, “only that she is old you could make this statement”. Both laughed along with few others who witnessed the conversation.

Local had already moved and was swiftly passing to catch the next station Mulund.

“Well, where is Adil”, inquired Shanker.

Jignesh replied, “He had gone to meet his Uncle place over the weekend. Shall join us at Kurla.”

Jignesh was already busy with his mobile checking for stock market sentiment before the markets open. He his happy now as earlier he used to struggle with the newspaper, now with smart phone his life was simpler.

By this time the other members of the group (4more) were already discussing their weekend sojourns. They were interrupted with Shakar opening up his laptop. It was strange for him to do so while going to office.

Shanker announced, “ok guys, here is what we need to discuss and come to a conclusion on”.

Jignesh, barely looking up, “ Wali suru thei gayu (again you have started). What are you trying to gain my dear Shankar, you are not going to become Shanker Dayal Sharma”, He chuckled.

Shankar ignoring Jignesh said, We have another 10min before Adil comes in with his analysis.

One of the old group member said, “What is the hot topic that we are discussing, looks that a lot has happened over the two days when I was sick and not present’.

Before Shankar could speak, Jignesh keeping his phone in the pocket said, “bhai he wants to change India. He and Adil are debating what are the major reforms which the new government should take on and I was suggesting that nothing is going to change so enjoy the local ride in this heat.”

The old man said,”Jignesh there is more responsibility on us then just make money for oneself”.

Jignesh, kept quiet as he didn’t want to answer back to Uncle. Yes that what they called him. Shanker witnessed this and was smiling under the lips.

Train had reached Kurla now. …….

……………………“to be continued”

By ‘dod’ Rangers

Indian Democracy: Potential of David

What should we expect with respect to the story of Davids. Well, am expecting average performance in comparison to our Goliaths. Surprisingly, Davids are eager to narrate their revenue story, so here you go with some statistics. Hope our patrons do not reduce their love for us because of positioning of statistics very often now.

The Davids

        GDP 2012-13         (Rs. Lac Crs.)

Seats

GDP/Seat

(Rs. Lac Crs.)

Mizoram

0.08

1 0.08
Nagaland

0.13

1 0.13
Sikkim

0.09

1 0.09
Arunachal Pradesh

0.12

2 0.06
Meghalaya

0.18

2 0.09

Source:http://planningcommission.nic.in

All the David’s have their GDP/Seat ratio less than that of National average of Rs. 0.17 lac Crs. We were not expecting it to be any way greater. But the fact glaring at us is that per seat GDP of three of Davids is more than per seat GDP of at least two of the Goliaths (Uttar Pradesh & Bihar). Davids make a clear statement that they have potential to grow. Read our other article on the abundance of land resources with Davids.

The interesting question posed before the nation is that we can reallocate resources, read seats, to the Davids so that their potential of development can be explored. It is quite evident that Davids, with better representation, should do good.

By ‘dod’ Rangers

Indian Democracy: The Goliath Muscle

At the onset, we would like to thank all readers, we call them patrons, of “dod” blog. Based on the feedback of our patrons, on David & Goliath series, we have done analysis of muscle power of these states. Muscle Power? Yes, here we are talking about the economic muscle. Lets see if we get surprises down here.


We have taken GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of these states for comparison and dipped into databank of Planning commission of India. Visit them at
http://planningcommission.nic.in . To analyze further we are computing another national ratio, National GDP/Seat Ratio, which comes out to be Rs.0.17 Lacs Crs. or 17,500 Crs. This ratio indicates Revenue (GDP), read resource, under management per seat.

 

The Goliaths

GDP 2012-13       (Rs. Lac Crs.)

Seats

GDP/Seat

(Rs. Lac Crs.)

State GDP as % of India’s GDP

Uttar Pradesh

7.69

80

0.09

8.2%

Maharashtra

13.72

48

0.28

15%

Andhra Pradesh

7.45

42

0.17

8%

Bihar

3.08

40

0.07

3%

West Bengal

6.22

42

0.14

6%


Lets analyze the Goliaths, Maharashtra is the top state with maximum GDP contribution (15%) to the nation. Bihar does not figure out in top 5 GDP producing states, while West Bengal barely manages to stay in 5th spot. Followed closely by Gujarat. With an exception of Bihar, top seat contributors also are top GDP produces for India.


Lets analyze the GDP/Seat of Goliaths. Here Maharashtra, and if we are benevolent, Andhra Pradesh, have GDP/Seat ratio higher than India’s average. Thus even though in absolute terms three Goliaths have larger economic muscle, read GDP, but their GDP/Seat ratio is less than national average. We believe that seat allocation is to manage resources of the country better, than Goliaths are not the best performers.

 

Solution for Goliaths, we may sound simplistic, but it is logical that Goliaths need to increase GDP or reduce the number of seats. We believe the former is the option and not the later.


Any guesses on the economic muscle of Davids?

By “dod” Rangers

Telangana – A perspective on 29th State of India

Couple of week back we all witnessed the high pitch fights and altercations in Lok and Rajya sabha over passing up of the bill to create a new state of Telangana. In this article we would like to view creation of state in a different perspective .We are not going to talk about seat creation, vote bank and high emotions running around.

We shall analyze few aspects of yet another larger democracy in World, United States of America. USA is a federal form of government. Simply speaking various states have come together and chosen to be represented under one flag.  Over a period of time states utilizing their autonomy USA has witnessed unprecedented progress and now is world’s richest country.

Parameters

United States

India

GDP (PPP)

$16.7 TN

$4.96 TN

States

50

29

GDP/State

$334 BN

$171 BN

                                                                                                                    Data Source CIA

On comparing GDP (PPP) of the two countries USA and India, it is apparent that even when national GDP of US is more than 3.3 times that of India, US per state GDP is only 1.95 times more than that of India. Let’s do another comparison.

When the same parameters are compared with respect to population, the results are stark. India’s per state population is 6.51 times more than that of USA.

Parameters

United States

India

Population

317 Million

1200 Million

States

50

29

Population/State

6.34 Million

41.3 Million

                                                                                                                      Data Source CIA

The asset of any country is it’s population and countries that have recognized it and have put efforts to enrich their human capital have witnessed a great turnaround. This turnaround is then reflected in increased GDP of the country and per capita income of its population.

In order to concentrate on population, a democracy would need micro management of the region,
–       Understand regional concerns,
–       Recognize the assets
–       Identify opportunities and
–       Build policies, which would lead to growth of the region.

We believe that this would be achievable by creating smaller states to ensure growth of the region and its population. We firmly believe that creation of Telangana is a step in right economic direction.  We would like to get the focus of the country towards the BIMARU states, which are riddled with low state GDPs.

Carving out smaller states of the BMRU region would go a long way in creating a long term balanced and incremental growth of the country.

“By DoD Rangers”